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        您的位置 > 首页 > 股市新闻 > 新闻正文

        市场忧心经济放缓和衰退 资金涌入流动性较强的债市

        原标题:债市的红火可以证明:市场的信心究竟崩得有多快因美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业数据与“小非农”ADP就业数据表现...

        原标题:债市的红火可以证明:市场的信心究竟崩得有多快

        因美国供应管理协会(ISM)制造业数据与“小非农”ADP就业数据表现均不佳,美国10年期国债收益率于周二周三连续下跌,刷新三周低位。周四,ISM非制造业数据公布后,美债直线插水,美国2年期国债收益率跌至2017年9月以来新低。

        债市的频繁波动并非空穴来风,实际上,作为全球最大的国债市场,美债收益率的波动向市场传递出一个清晰的信号——全球经济增长陷入停滞,通胀预期不断萎缩。

        避险情绪似乎在近段时间有所缓解,但其实对经济放缓和衰退的担忧一直和市场形影不离。债券市场通胀指标预计物价压力将进一步下降,且长期债务的收益率并没有比短期的高多少。此外,本周四公布的美国服务业数据出人意料地疲弱,加剧了人们的焦虑情绪。此前有报告显示,全球制造业已经步履蹒跚。这些都能明显体现市场缺乏信心。对此,Evercore ISI投资组合策略主管Dennis Debusschere表示:

        “目前债券市场的主题一直是,出现经济衰退和反通胀局面的风险越来越大?;醣艺咚艽吹淖饔迷嚼丛饺?,因此在经济衰退的情况下,市场将面临通胀预期非常低的风险。因此,大量资金流入流动性较强的债券市场?!?/p>

        说到通胀,目前在美国通货膨胀市场,衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年期盈亏平衡利率本周四跌至1.47%,为2016年以来的最低水平。今年4月,该指数曾创下2019年以来的新高,接近2%。

        美联储主席鲍威尔今年曾明确表示,美联储将通胀预期视为“实际通胀率的最重要驱动因素”。因此,盈亏平衡利率的下降令人担忧,这表明美联储的刺激措施未能提振通胀,更不用说实现2%的目标了。

        连续两次降息均未能提振通胀水平,当前市场押注美联储在10月会议上再降息的可能性越来越高,约为80%,而上周的降息几率还不到50%。总体而言,到今年年底,美国联邦基金利率期货显示,美联储将再降息38个基点,到2020年还会进一步降息。

        除了债券收益率,期限溢价也发出不一样的信号——投资者现在通常要求持有长期国债而不是展期短期国债。尽管多数人认为,美联储在2008年金融?;逼诠郝虻氖蛞诿涝吡似谙抟缂?,并将其推高至目前接近纪录低点的水平,但投资者仍将其视为经济萎靡的不祥之兆。

        不仅是美国,欧洲市场也发出了类似的悲观气氛。欧元区物价压力的长期指标正在下滑:衡量未来十年通胀预期的5y5y掉期利率正跌至历史低点,引发了市场和欧洲监管者对通缩的担忧。欧洲央行管委维斯科本周四表示,欧洲央行不能冒失去对通胀预期控制的风险,并称更严重的风险是“国债高企的情况下出现通缩”。

        在如此严峻的前景下,市场似乎已经得出结论:欧洲央行的动作已经落后于形势,认为欧央行没有采取任何支持性行动。然而,欧洲央行上个月将其政策利率降至-0.5%的历史新低,并承诺实施出台更多的量化宽松政策。

        有鉴于此,花旗集团建议投资者通过掉期利率做空欧洲通胀率,目标为1%。这一比例目前约为1.1%,低于今年早些时候逾1.5%的水平。Columbia Threadneedle Investments固定收益业务全球副主管Gene Tannuzzo也表示,在市场已经对全球增长感到担忧的时候,英国脱欧成为经济放缓的负面政治影响因素。

        来源:金十数据

        本文标题: 市场忧心经济放缓和衰退 资金涌入流动性较强的债市 新闻转载自网络,不代表本站立场,如若有问题请联系管理员,转载请注明出处:http://www.263mov.com/stock/812842.html

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