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        您的位置 > 首页 > 股市新闻 > 新闻正文

        财经观察:经济数据不佳再度引发美国经济衰退讨论

        新华社记者杨承霖高攀美国近日公布的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)、私人部门就业、非制造业PMI三项关键经济数据,均低于市...

        新华社记者杨承霖 高攀

        美国近日公布的制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)、私人部门就业、非制造业PMI三项关键经济数据,均低于市场预期。这不仅导致美股大幅下滑,也再度引发各界对美国经济衰退的讨论。

        分析人士认为,经贸摩擦和加征关税是造成美国制造业萎缩和非制造业增长放缓的主要原因。

        非制造业放缓或致经济“失速”

        美国供应管理学会3日公布的调查数据显示,9月美国非制造业PMI下跌至52.6,为2016年8月以来最低水平。继9月制造业PMI和私人部门就业数据不及预期之后,9月美国非制造业PMI再度大幅低于市场预期,令美国资本市场雪上加霜,纽约道琼斯工业平均指数最近3个交易日下跌逾700点。

        供应管理学会非制造业调查委员会主席安东尼·涅韦斯表示,尽管当前数据显示美国非制造业仍在扩张,但其增速已经放缓。

        由于非制造业占美国经济比重超过80%,最新数据让众多分析人士担忧美国经济前景。巴克莱银行首席美国经济学家迈克尔·加彭说,非制造业PMI跌至52、53附近,或跌至市场共识以下,人们便会担忧美国服务业开始放缓。他还警告,美国经济可能正从“扩张”转向“失速”。

        威尔明顿信托公司首席经济学家卢克·蒂利表示,美国经济由消费和服务业支撑,供应管理学会的数据是判断美国经济状况的关键。蒂利说,在关税升级情况得到控制之前,看不到美国经济有任何反弹动力。

        加征关税加速制造业萎缩

        供应管理学会1日发布数据显示,9月美国制造业PMI较上月大幅下滑至47.8,为2009年6月以来最低水平。

        供应管理学会制造业调查委员会主席蒂莫西·菲奥尔表示,美国企业信心持续下降,9月是制造业PMI连续第二个月收缩,且收缩速度比8月更快。菲奥尔强调,全球贸易局势仍是最重要的因素。

        供应管理学会指出,在该机构关注的18个制造业行业中,仅3个行业9月实现增长,其余均萎缩。参与调查的多个行业对加征关税造成的伤害表示担忧。食品饮料和烟草产品行业表示,关税提高影响了经营?;げ沸幸当硎?,经贸摩擦对经济产生冲击,需求下降导致库存积压。

        数据显示,9月仅有供应商运输指数仍维持在50以上,新订单指数、生产指数、就业指数、库存指数等分项指数全部处于50以下。

        不少分析人士认为,关税上调对全球制造业的打击已经愈发明显。美国布利克利咨询集团首席投资官彼得·布克瓦尔表示,通过加征关税,美国如今已经把本国和全球制造业“拖上衰退之路”。

        就业增速下滑推升衰退风险

        近期多方数据显示,美国新增就业岗位数量开始显著下滑。各界担忧美国就业形势可能走弱。

        长期跟踪美国私人部门就业状况的美国自动数据处理公司日前表示,美国就业市场已显露出放缓迹象。美国官方此前公布的8月就业数据也印证了这一趋势。劳工部数据显示,8月美国非农部门新增就业岗位13万个,不及市场预期。据媒体报道,该月增加的就业岗位中,还包括美国政府临时招聘的2.5万名人口普查工作人员。

        穆迪首席经济学家马克·赞迪认为,当前市场对劳动力的需求开始疲软,雇佣状况整体走弱。美国企业在招聘方面已经变得更加谨慎,小企业尤其犹豫不决。如果企业进一步缩减开支,失业率将上升。赞迪表示,美国经济正处于脆弱关口。

        本文标题: 财经观察:经济数据不佳再度引发美国经济衰退讨论 新闻转载自网络,不代表本站立场,如若有问题请联系管理员,转载请注明出处:http://www.263mov.com/stock/812830.html

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