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        您的位置 > 首页 > 财经新闻 > 新闻正文

        英国无序脱欧或成全球衰退罪魁祸首,英镑也将陷深渊

        汇通网讯——如果英国在没有达成过渡协议的情况下退出欧盟,其连锁反应将破坏本已脆弱的全球经济。届时,不仅是英国经济陷入衰退...

        汇通网讯——如果英国在没有达成过渡协议的情况下退出欧盟,其连锁反应将破坏本已脆弱的全球经济。届时,不仅是英国经济陷入衰退,还会对整个欧元区造成冲击。而欧洲央行可能会因为帮助英国摆脱困境的弹药即将耗尽。欧元、英镑或将双双大跌。

        如果英国在没有达成过渡协议的情况下退出欧盟,其连锁反应将破坏本已脆弱的全球经济。届时,不仅是英国经济陷入衰退,还会对整个欧元区造成冲击。而欧洲央行可能会因为帮助英国摆脱困境的弹药即将耗尽。欧元、英镑或将双双大跌。

        英国、欧洲或将陷入衰退

        2016年的英国脱欧公投立即对经济产生了冲击,并迅速在全球市场上扩散,但最糟糕的情况是,英国无协议脱欧肯定会损害英国经济,使其陷入衰退。

        英国目前计划在10月底离开欧盟,英国首相约翰逊(BorisJohnson)承诺无论是否达成协议,都会坚持到最后期限带英国离开。

        英国央行对“最糟糕的情况下,没有协议直接离开”的最新评估显示,英国GDP将从峰值下降5.5%。这显示了可能造成的破坏程度。

        第二大受害者将是欧元区。欧洲央行(EuropeanCentralBank)估计,欧元区遭受的打击将相当于英国所遭受打击的10%-30%。这可能就是经济放缓和彻底衰退之间的区别。

        法国兴业银行(SocieteGenerale)全球首席经济学家巴斯德(KlausBaader)周二表示,、预计英国GDP每减少1%,欧元区GDP就会下降0.2%至0.25%。如果英国真的陷入深度衰退,很可能会把欧元区推入衰退。

        欧洲央行政策制定者奥利·雷恩(OlliRehn)上月表示,对欧洲的影响将“不均衡地扩散,爱尔兰将受到最大冲击,然后是那些向英国出口大量商品的国家”。

        欧洲面临的部分问题是,欧洲央行已经用尽了大部分政策弹药来应对欧元区的经济放缓,如果英国退欧引发更严重的动荡,欧洲央行几乎没有火力。即将离任的欧洲央行行长德拉吉(MarioDraghi)上月指出,包括英国在内的19个成员国面临的危险有所增加。

        意大利前总理马里奥·蒙蒂(MarioMonti)本周表示:英国无协议脱欧将给英国带来非常严重的后果,对每个欧盟成员国也是如此。

        全球经济更不乐观

        纽约大学(NewYorkUniversity)教授鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼(NourielRoubini)称,英国退欧的爆发本身可能不会引发全球衰退,但它肯定会引发欧洲衰退,进而波及其他经济体?!?br>
        另一个风险是,在经历了数月的贸易紧张和政治不确定性之后,英国无协议脱欧是众所周知的压倒全球情绪的最后一根稻草。这可能会引发市场的下行螺旋。

        总部位于美国的投资银行和咨询公司SeaportGlobalHoldingsLLC负责政府交易和策略的董事总经理迪戈罗玛(TomdiGaloma)称,这最终将是一场巨大的避险交易。世界上有很多热点,英国脱欧就是其中之一。

        基准的10年期美国国债收益率显示出对全球经济增长的担忧。该指数目前在1.5%上方徘徊,低于年初的2.62%,与2016年创下的1.32%的历史低点相去不远。

        Galoma称,英国无协议脱欧是一种“灾难性的风险”,可能会引发人们争相购买德国国债和美国国债等更安全的资产。当前,由于美国主导的贸易争端令全球经济增长出现巨大的停滞,而英国退欧正在加剧这一问题。

        无序脱欧必然会对英国及世界经济造成巨大影响,可能会令英镑汇价短时暴跌,甚至兑欧元跌破平价。但当前,英国首相约翰逊所提交的新的脱欧协议正在交由欧盟和议会审议,有序脱欧的可能性在上升。毕竟,无序脱欧是所有人都想要避免的事情。如果有序脱欧达成,英镑将进入长期持续上行通道。

        北京时间10月4日16:57,英镑兑美元现报1.2330.

        本文标题: 英国无序脱欧或成全球衰退罪魁祸首,英镑也将陷深渊 新闻转载自网络,不代表本站立场,如若有问题请联系管理员,转载请注明出处:http://www.263mov.com/finance/812904.html

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