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        您的位置 > 首页 > 财经新闻 > 新闻正文

        10家大型投行前瞻美国9月非农:料增加10万-15万

        汇通网讯——北京时间10月4日20:30将公布美国9月非农就业报告,为时段内焦点所在,包括德意志银行在内的10家知名大型...

        汇通网讯——北京时间10月4日20:30将公布美国9月非农就业报告,为时段内焦点所在,包括德意志银行在内的10家知名大型投行发表了对此的前瞻,从大部分经济学家及分析人士的预期来看,美国9月季调后非农就业人口料介于10万-15万,8月为增加13万,9月失业率料介于3.6%-3.8%,8月为3.7%。

        北京时间周五(10月4日)20:30将公布美国9月非农就业报告,为时段内焦点所在,包括德意志银行在内的10家知名大型投行发表了对此的前瞻。

        具体来看,从大部分经济学家及分析人士的预期来看,美国9月季调后非农就业人口料介于10万-15万,8月为增加13万,9月失业率料介于3.6%-3.8%,8月为3.7%,以下为各投行的预期要点汇总。

        德意志银行

        共识预期显示美国9月季调后非农就业人口料增加14.5万,接受知名外媒采访的分析人士的预期介于8.5万-18.5万,我行经济学家团队预计将增加12.5万,将主要受到人口普查工作人员招聘的提振。

        若非农就业人口增幅符合我行预期,那么美国9月失业率将升至3.8%,其他指标方面,9月平均时薪月率料上涨0.3%,就业参与率料持稳于63.2%。

        高盛

        美国9月非农就业人数将增长15万人,失业率将回落至3.6%,平均时薪月率年率料3.2%。这样的数据表现会令就业人数增长趋势进一步放缓,但考虑到人口结构的变化,新增岗位数量依旧超过劳动力人口的增幅,因此总体就业环境向好势头不变。投资者无需因此而杞人忧天过度顾虑。

        丹麦丹斯克银行

        9月季调后非农就业人口料增加10万,共识预期为增加14.5万;尽管从以往的经验来看,非农数据波动幅度较大,但MarkitPMI和ISM报告中的就业指数看上去并不鼓舞人心,若9月非农就业报告疲软,可能推动市场重新计价美联储未来降息步伐。

        道明证券

        美国9月非农就业人口将增加15万,失业率持稳于3.7%,平均时薪月率上涨0.2%,平均时薪年率上涨3.2%。美国制造业就业岗位增长状况仍将疲软,但在服务业领域料会有一定程度的复苏。此外,人口普查工作人员的临时招聘将持续支撑9月就业数据。

        瑞银集团

        美国9月非农就业人口变动自增加14.5万下调至增加13.9万,不过此预期仍显示9月就业人口将较8月而言有所扩大,符合美国经济表现可能显得疲软的势头,虽然2018年关税措施的影响持续减退,但今年5月、6月及9月实施的关税措施将愈发拖累经济增长。

        加拿大国家金融银行

        从美国9月Markit综合PMI初值报告来看,就业增长已跌至2015年初来最慢,因此私营板块雇佣水平可能略微下降,不过联邦政府雇佣的临时工可能帮助抵消部分就业的下滑之势。

        也就是说,美国9月非农就业人口料增加16万,将仍足以吸收新的公务员,令失业率在长期内持稳。美国9月失业率料持稳于3.7%,家庭就业调查显示,就业人数仅小幅下滑。

        荷兰合作银行

        共识预期显示美国9月非农就业人口增加14.5万,此预期相对乐观,实际数据可能比此预期少1万-1.5万,可能持平于8月,但这将足以触发大部分市场大幅波动。

        西太平洋银行

        预计本周非农就业人口将录得增加16万人,失业率在3.7%,平均每小时薪资年率为3.3%,非农就业数据今年大幅减少,我们预计这种下降趋势将持续下去,9月份的月度波动性将会更大。

        2019年就业人口增幅的缩小令失业率处于周期性低位,鉴于美联储的降息及低企的利率水平,预计美国失业率不大可能大幅走升。此外薪资增长风险偏上行。

        荷兰国际集团

        美国9月非农就业报告存在下行风险,本周初公布的美国9月ISM制造业PMI的意外下行,跌至47.8的十年低位,位于50荣枯分水岭下方,从分项指标来看,产出、出口订单和就业指标均极为疲软,暗示产出极有可能进一步下滑,美国9月非农就业报告存在下行风险。

        当前美国消费板块持续表现良好,市场预计9月非农就业报告将提供就业增长进一步放缓的信号,美联储或暗示将继续降息,以试图缓和整体经济增长放缓的情况,下次降息极有可能于12月进行,并于2020年一季度再降息25个基点。

        澳新银行

        2019年美国就业增长已放缓,不过仍处于供求平衡状态,共识预期显示美国9月非农就业人口将增加14万,失业率持稳于3.7%。

        本文标题: 10家大型投行前瞻美国9月非农:料增加10万-15万 新闻转载自网络,不代表本站立场,如若有问题请联系管理员,转载请注明出处:http://www.263mov.com/finance/812903.html

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