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        您的位置 > 首页 > 财经新闻 > 新闻正文

        备战非农?你只需要看这篇文就够了

        热点大事深度梳理,最全维度市场剖析,交易员关心的都在这里。非农携手美联储注定引爆今晚行情,究竟该如何备战,到底有哪些市场...

        热点大事深度梳理,最全维度市场剖析,交易员关心的都在这里。

        非农携手美联储注定引爆今晚行情,究竟该如何备战,到底有哪些市场机会?让我们一起来梳理一下。

        01日程一览

        20:30美国就将公布9月季调后非农就业人口数据,随之一起发布的还有9月失业率和8月贸易帐。

        在考虑可能的市场波动的时候,投资者可千万不要只看着非农,美联储著名“鹰派”罗森格伦、美联储主席鲍威尔都将发表讲话。

        02精选分析

        ?非农数据到底会有何种表现?

        根据彭博对经济学家的调查采访,9月私营部门就业预估中值仅为增加13万,这是七年来除有严重风暴或政府停摆等事件影响的几个月外最弱的预测。总体非农就业人数的预估中值高一些,为增加14.8万,因为预计人口普查带来的临时用工料将提振整体数据。

        路透调查得出的9月非农数据预期为增加14.5万,而在对23家投行机构的调查中,它们中的大多数给出的数字都低于或等于这个预期,只有9家投行的预期超过了14.5万。其中高盛对本周的9月非农数据的预期本来是增加16.5万,但在ISM数据公布之后,高盛将其预期下调1.5万至15万,并将美国第三季度GDP增速预期降低0.1%至1.9%。

        近期公布的其他美国经济指标也预示,此次非农数据表现不容乐观。在近期公布的9项重要数据中,有5项数据表现预示了非农的低迷,且在这其中,无论是小非农还是制造业PMI,都是非常重磅的。

        ?非农数据对市场的影响

        值得注意的是,在做非农行情的时候,除了非农数据表现难测之外,市场对不同数据的反应也无法轻易下定论,这也是数据新闻难交易的一个重要原因,有时候看起来利好的数据可能会导致市场下跌。

        尤其现在,无论是金市还有股市,都主要靠重新燃起的美联储降息预期支撑,因而此次非农的影响可能会比较复杂。

        如果数据优于预期,意味着美国经济还算健康,美股和美元的应激反应应该是上涨,黄金会受打压,但数据向好也会令10月降息预期降温,不排除美股因此再次掉头向下。

        如果数据继续显示出更加疲软的趋势,会加深经济衰退忧虑,美股和美元的第一反应应该是下跌,黄金会受益上涨。与此同时10月降息,甚至12月降息的预期都可能继续升温,金价的涨势或许有望进一步加深,而美股则可能迎来反弹。如果9月非农就业增加人数低于14万,平均每小时薪资增速放缓至0.2%,则可能看到美元更持久的下跌。

        ?美联储会怎么看非农

        今晚搅动市场的注定不只有非农,美联储大“鹰派”罗森格伦以及美联储主席鲍威尔都将在非农数据后发表讲话,他们会对非农做出何种解读,又将对货币政策做出何种展望,这些都将引发市场动荡。

        我们先来看罗森格伦,他将在20:30发表讲话,也就是非农数据刚发布之后。罗森格伦是2019年FOMC票委,也是知名的“鹰派”,是9月议息会议上投票反对降息的两位官员之一,他认为美联储应该保持利率不变。但如今多项重要数据都显示美国经济似乎出现恶化迹象,他的立场会不会发生变化?

        接下来需要重点关注的就是美联储主席鲍威尔了。在9月7日被问到是否应该担心美国出现下一次的经济衰退时,鲍威尔表示并不担心,数据可以证实美国经济会温和增长,例如非农数据好于预期。但如若这次非农数据疲软了呢?鲍威尔又将如何解释其他没有好于预期的重要经济数据呢?

        除了要与市场和数据“博弈”,鲍威尔还要面对白宫的压力。特朗普据悉已宣布计划任命布拉德的一位高级副手进入美联储理事会,而这名经济学家至少有部分观点是与布拉德相同的。外界猜测,如果特朗普成功连任,布拉德可能成为美联储主席的头号候选人。

        来源:金十数据

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